Donald Trump got no bounce from the Republican convention, new poll finds

Donald Trump saw no boost in poll numbers following the Republican Convention last week, a new poll revealed Monday, as it also indicates a number of key demographics who voted for him in 2016 are indicating they won’t do so again in November.

The USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which maintains a daily tracking of voter preferences, showed in new results Monday, following both the Democratic and Republican conventions, that Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Trump by 11 percentage points, 52 per cent to 41 per cent.

Only 2 per cent of eligible voters say they are planning to vote for a third party candidate.

A rolling average over the last week shows virtually the same results with a 53 per cent to 41 per cent margin between the two major party candidates.

There is only a 1 percentage point margin of error in the poll and Biden’s lead over Trump is almost double the 6-point lead the same survey showed for Hillary Clinton at this point four years ago.

That year, however, Clinton received a major boost from her convention and was then on a downward track from that bump.

The daily tracker, which has remained steady the last two weeks despite usual bumps from party conventions, found Trump trailing Biden is, in large part, due to certain voting blocs who cast their ballot for Trump in 2016 now leaning toward the Democrat option.

Trump has lost about 9 per cent of voters who backed him in the last presidential election. On the other hand, about 4 per cent of those who say they voted for Clinton in 2016, now claim they will cast their ballot for Trump – making the president’s net loss more around 5 per cent.

In 2016, Trump barley secured victory in several key swing states, winning by less than 1 percentage point in three states that put his Electoral College count over the threshold needed to win – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

During the Democratic convention earlier this month, Biden gained 2 percentage points – taking them from Trump’s pool of voters – but the president regained some of that ground during his convention the next week.

The daily tracking poll surveys the views of more than 8,000 eligible voters and polls them every 14 days for a rolling average.

The current results released Monday are based on responses from 5,106 panel members.

Groups who voted for Trump in 2016 and have moved away from the president during his tenure include people of color, rural women and white suburban men.

Nearly 1 in 5 POC who voted for Trump in the last electron now say they would vote for Biden, the poll revealed.

Trump’s stronghold remains in rural America, but support among women in those areas has slipped by 10 percentage points – while rural men’s support has remained steady.

Trump has attempted to gain ground in suburban areas – as he’s likely aware of the slim chances he would win in any major city – by shifting his message on ‘law and order’ as cities experience mass chaos in the wake of months-long Black Lives Matter riots.

The president claims Democrats are an enemy to police and are incapable of restoring order and keeping Americans safe.

Democrat’s rebuttal is stressing Trump’s alleged mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and claiming he has stirred up violent disorder by inadequately responding to the civil unrest.

White suburban men are more closely divided this time around then they were in 2016 when they went for Trump, but are still leaning toward the Republican incumbent. White suburban women lean toward Biden.

Among suburban voters overall, Biden leads Trump 53 per cent to 40 per cent. The former vice president also has a large lead among suburban voters of color.

Trump’s major demographic stronghold is white voters without a college degree.