Joe Biden leads Trump in the three key battleground states of Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin – three states key to helping secure the incumbent president’s victory in 2016, a new poll conducted by Fox News has revealed.

Conducted after the conclusion of both national conventions, the surveys found that support for Trump’s re-election has fallen below his 2016 vote share in each state.

Biden’s advantage was found to be coming from strong support among female and suburban voters. Furthermore, suburban women in all three states said they trust Biden over Trump to handle the coronavirus pandemic and criminal justice matters.

The interest in the election for supporters of each camp was found to be relatively even. 

Across Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin, a large cohort of voters expressed plans to cast their ballot by mail. The admission was made by far more Democrats than Republicans.

The surveys include results among likely voters for the first time this cycle, and also marks the first time the presidential vote preference question includes the names of both the presidential and vice presidential candidates.

With the election now just two months away, voters can now request and return absentee ballots in North Carolina starting this week, and in Wisconsin by mid-September. In Arizona, meanwhile, absentee ballots are made available from early October.

Here are the results of the Fox poll: 

Arizona

In Arizona, Biden is preferred over Trump by 49-40 percent among voters in the state. The nine-point lead falls outside the survey’s margin of error.

President Trump won the state with 48.7 percent of the vote in 2016, besting Hillary Clinton by three-and-a-half percentage points.

Currently, a 56 percent majority of Arizonans disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, with 43 percent approving.

Biden, meanwhile, finds himself in the overwhelming favour of seniors, women and Hispanics in the state.

Biden leads Trump in Arizona’s Hispanic population by 46 points, women by 16 points and suburban voters by seven points.

There’s also more party loyalty among Democrats in the state, as 92 percent back Biden compared to 85 percent of Republicans supporting Trump.

Trump was found to be more favorable among whites without a college degree by around 11 points, and with Gen Z-ers by five points.

White voters overall were split evenly between Biden and Trump at 45 percent a piece.

On the topic of coronavirus, more Arizona voters said they trusted Biden to steer the US out of the on-going pandemic more so than Trump, by around 17 points. They also trust Biden to handle policing and criminal justice by a smaller five point margin.

The president and his Democratic competitor, however, ranked evenly on the economy (Trump by one point) and in dealing with China (Biden by one point).

One in four think coronavirus is completely or mostly under control (24 percent), while 38 percent say it is somewhat under control and 37 percent say it’s ‘not at all’ under control.

Fox reported that an improvement in pandemic numbers would likely help the president, as around 80 percent of those who feel the virus is under control support Trump, while the same percentage of those who think it isn’t at all are backing Biden.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Biden is currently holding a more slender four point lead among likely voters – an advantage that falls within error margins.

In what will likely prove to be a tight race, whites in the state back Trump by 23 points, while black people support Biden by a landslide 82 points.

Where gender is concerned, men favour Trump by two points, while women prefer Biden by 10.

Among rural voters, Trump reigns victorious, besting Biden by 14 points, while suburban voters favour Biden by 19 points. Among suburban female voters that lead grows to 31 points.

Much like Arizona, Trump finds significant favour among white voters without a college education (33 point lead). The President also has a favourable lead among white women (19 points).

Trump won the Tar Heel State by nearly four points in the last election, receiving 49.8 percent of the vote.

Around the same number of voters favour him today, with 49 percent approving of the job he’s doing as president, while 50 percent disapprove.

Voters also see Trump as more adept in dealing with the economy (by eight points) and dealing with China (by five points). The pair scored even on the topic of who was more trusted to handle policing and criminal justice reform.

Most of the state, at a rate of 40 percent, say coronavirus is ‘not at all’ under control, and those voters back Biden by a 70 point difference, Fox reported.

Wisconsin

Amid the ongoing unrest in the state spurred by the police shooting of Jacob Blake, who was shot seven times in the back by police in Kenosha, Biden is currently leading Trump by eight points among likely voters in Wisconsin. That figure is just outside the margin for error.

Once again its female voters’ favorability of Biden that is making the difference. The back Biden by 17 points more than Trump, while men are even divided on where their vote will be cast (Trump leads by one point).

Again, Democrats are also more loyal to Biden than Republicans to Trump, at a rate of 95 percent and 86 percent respectively.

The president, however, continues to lead among rural voters (by four points) and white voters without a college degree (by five points).

Biden is more trusted on the topic of COVID-19 by a 17 point margin, and a five point margin on policing and criminal justice reform.

Voters rate both equally on the economy and pick Trump by only 1 point on dealing with China.

On Tuesday, the president visited Kenosha, Wisconsin, where the police shooting of Jacob Blake has prompted both peaceful and violent protests. Police in the city have charge Kyle Rittenhouse, 17, with shooting dead two protesters in the days that followed the shooting of Blake.

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that he too would be visiting the embattled city on Thursday, to conduct a ‘community meeting’ and meet with the family of Blake, something the president opted not to do.

It’s the first visit to Wisconsin by Biden this year, and the first to the state by a Democratic presidential nominee since 2012.

Ahead of the visit, 45 percent of voters said they believed the coronavirus was ‘not at all’ under control, with the group picking Biden over Trump by 84-10 percent.

If elected, Biden would be the second ever Catholic president, with President John F. Kennedy being the first.

Among white catholic voters, their presidential preference is split evenly at 47 percent. The smaller subgroup of White evangelical Christians, however, favors Trump by a handsome 33 points.

Wisconsin turned red for the first time in decades in 2016, with Trump besting Clinton by around 23,000 votes. Today, a majority of 54 percent disapprove of his presidential performance, with 45 percent approving.