Fall Brings Strong Winds of Fears of a COVID-19 Outbreak in the Big Apple | The NY Journal
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After several weeks that the infection rate has remained below 1%, scientists assure that the city enters a stage of “complicated equilibrium” with high possibilities of an increase in infections
When a new viral infection dubbed COVID-19 raged steadily in Asia and Europe earlier this year, New York Health authorities predicted it was only a “matter of time” before the virus reached the city. On March 1, the first case was reported and thereafter the story of death and economic devastation is already known. Now, the autumn winds that officially begins this Tuesday bring with them in addition to the natural fall of the leaves the possibility that the “monster” of the coronavirus will reawaken.
After several weeks in which it has remained at bay the infection rate below 1%In the midst of the progress in the economic reopening phases, the scientific community in New York has very cautiously shared the possible upcoming scenarios of a resurgence of a probable second wave of coronavirus with the arrival of autumn, an infection that has killed more than 23,000 people to date, in the Big Apple alone.
Reports confirm that New York City Health authorities are working closely with epidemiological and scientific teams from universities, and precisely what has transpired from mathematical prediction models is that in effect the next steps to reopen, such as schools and restaurants, could lead to higher infection rates.
What is not clear is if that will mean a return to the “nightmare” of spring and how prepared the City is for eventual sprouts.
Balancing act
“The reopening in stages implies increases in transmission activity. Each model says that there will be increases in the cases “the doctor told the Bloomberg digital newspaper Jeff Shaman of Columbia University, who is part of a team that works with the City to predict possible outbreak scenarios.
The expert explained that the Big Apple was involved in a “Very difficult balancing act” between case control and the reopening of schools. But also the prevention of company bankruptcy.
“The reopening is good for the city, but it is also good for the virus. There is enormous potential for growth, even in a place like New York City, because 75% to 85% of the population it has not yet been infected, ”concluded Shaman.
Beyond the calculations and scientific forecasts, some health unions and elected leaders have put on the table the need for the City to analyze and present plans given the possibility that in the coming weeks COVID-19 put the healthcare system back on the ropes.
The City’s weapon: ‘Test + Trace’
The Health authorities of the Big Apple have focused their strategy more than preparing hospitals for an avalanche of new cases, in intensify protection measures, massify tests and track probable infections.
Sources of NYC Health + Hospitals (H + H) consulted by The newspaper say that after the “painful lessons” left by the pandemic in New York City there are more defenses to face an eventual outbreak, but that in the face of all the challenges posed by reopening in the fall all energies are put into avoiding the spread of the virus at all costs.
He doctor ted long, Executive Director of the City’s ‘Test + Trace’ Program, assured in recent days that the way to maintain the rate of COVID-19 infections under control, it is diversifying and expanding the testing and tracking plan to all corners of the city.
“Our effort is to get the communities with the highest risk involved in this hyperlocal response,” he said.
According to the disclosed data, the program ‘Test + Trace’ it has been possible to prevent some 15,000 potential COVID-19 infections in the Big Apple, since more than 80% of the people who have registered positive results in their tests have completed the protocols to identify the individuals with whom they had contact, and have also complied with the isolation.
Meanwhile, Dr. Dave A. Chokshi, Commissioner of the City Department of Health (DOHMH) recalled that the Big Apple has gone from being the epicenter of the outbreak to be a national leader in the response to COVID-19.
“New Yorkers following precautions, such as washing hands, distancing themselves, covering their faces and staying home when sick, has been critical. Another important factor has been constant innovation “.
Chokshi values the kinds of innovations the City has on hand as signs of early warning for emerging outbreaks.
“Our current response is driven by data. In neighborhoods where we see that fewer people get tested, but with a high percentage of positive results, we put additional resources. This ensures that we are looking for the virus where it could be spreading, ”the official said.
The nightmare of spring
He last February 26, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers that there were “no reasons to panic” because the hospital and healthcare system was prepared “like no other in the country to face an outbreak.” A month later, exactly on March 27, it is documented how the municipal president and governor Andrew Cuomo clamored to help the federal government before the collapse of the hospitals, the lack of masks and respirators.
The warning of the ‘pandemonium’ in which public hospitals in the Big Apple had become had already been described almost prophetically on March 12 by the New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA), when they were just beginning to be detected the first 100 cases of the infection on the streets of New York.
Now, again this guild shows concerns.
“We have to look to the future. The unfortunate thing is that Today we hear about cuts in staff and funding in public hospitals. If that happens and before the certainty of a second wave of infections, which is going to come, we do not know if even though we already have more experience in how to face COVID-19, that will not necessarily mean that we will have a response capacity with the appropriate equipment, “denounced a source from NYSNA.
In this sense, Puerto Rican nurse Wanda González of the Lincoln Hospital of The Bronx, ratified The newspaper that if the “budget and personnel cuts” materialize, the most affected communities will be the poorest neighborhoods that have already experienced the worst face of this public health crisis.
“We must get used to it”
The president of the New York Hispanic Health Network Guillermo Chacón, ensures that his reading is that in the fall and winter “difficult moments” with the pandemic will be repeated.
“It is very important the role of the communities themselves in their prevention measures and that the authorities do not forget the undocumented immigrants who once again they could be what gets all the weight of a second wave. It has been controlled, but the virus is here “, estimated the activist.
10 milestones in the fight against COVID-19 in NYC:
- March 1st: The first case of coronavirus is confirmed in New York City, the patient had traveled to Iran and worked in the health system. Survived the virus.
- March 11th: With 53 confirmed cases, Mayor De Blasio launches the first massive information campaign to wash hands and avoid crowds. The local authorities do not consider the use of masks necessary.
- March 17: Given the exponential advance of the cases, the NYC authorities order the commercial closure of the city to prevent the further expansion of the virus, including theaters and cinemas. The activity of the restaurants only allows food to go.
- April 7: All the statistics already indicated that New York City was the epicenter of the virus worldwide and that it was hitting mainly blacks and Hispanics from the poorest neighborhoods. 590 deaths in just one day in the Big Apple.
- April 10th: Health authorities announce a prevention program in 12 languages to try to counter the pandemic in neighborhoods of black and Latino minorities, with an emphasis on Queens and the Bronx.
- April 11: After weeks of strong pressure from union sectors, the 1,700 public schools in the Big Apple were ordered to close for the rest of the school year.
- April 17th: NY Health Authorities mandate the use of masks in all public places in the state as an additional measure to contain infections. First five free testing sites open in neighborhoods hardest hit by COVID-19 in NYC.
- 3 of June: The case curve is declining and the first day without deaths from the viral infection in the Big Apple, since March 11, is confirmed.
- 8 of June: Given the decline in the number of patients, deaths and hospitalizations, the first phase of the economic reopening in the Big Apple begins.
- June 10th: The ‘test and trace’ plan is activated in the Big Apple.
Coronavirus crushed in NYC:
- 1% of the approximately 30,000 daily tests performed in the past month in NYC were positive.
- 161 positive tests in NYC were confirmed on September 17, it was the average for the last four weeks.
- 350 positive daily tests on average for COVID-19 were recorded in August.
- 5,300 confirmatory tests each day on average for COVID-19 during April.
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