Up to 4.5million most at risk from Covid ‘will be told to stay home under new shielding plan’

Up to 4.5 million people most at risk from Covid will be told to stay at home under a new shielding plan based on health, age and weight, according to a report.

Letters with tailored advice are to be sent to individuals based on a new ‘risk model’ which will factor in underlying health conditions, age, sex and weight.

This measure will be introduced first for areas with high rates of infection but a Whitehall source told The Sunday Telegraph ‘if the rate is so concerning across the whole of England we are prepared to do it on a blanket basis.’

It comes amid a surge in coronavirus cases, with a rise of 3,497 yesterday – the highest Saturday uptick in four months. Another nine died of coronavirus, bringing Britain’s death toll to 41,623.

There are grave fears that we may ‘lose control of the virus’ because it has once again starting ripping through the nation’s care homes.

A Department of Health report marked ‘official sensitive’ and circulated on Friday said that the rate of coronavirus recorded through satellite tests – which are used in care homes – had quadrupled since the start of the month.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock took an emergency update on Wednesday saying that outbreaks had been detected in 43 care homes, according to the Sunday Times.

Sir Mark Walport, the former chief scientific adviser, warned yesterday that we are ‘on the edge of losing control’ of the pandemic and urged people to work from home where possible.

Public Health England (PHE) data suggests Covid-19 cases are surging among the over-50s, as senior officials last night warned of ‘worrying’ signs for high-risk groups.

Last week, infections rose by 92 per cent among people in their 50s, 72 per cent among those in their 60s, and 44 per cent among those in their 80s and older.

There was a 20 per cent increase in Covid-related hospital admissions last week on the previous week among those aged 60-75, a 72 per cent increase among 75 to 84-year-olds, and a 67 per cent rise in those 85 and over.

Yvonne Doyle, medical director at PHE, said: ‘3,539 new cases of Covid-19 have been reported overnight, compared to 2,919 yesterday. Most of these cases are people tested in the community.

‘Although younger people continue to make up the greatest share of new cases, we’re now starting to see worrying signs of infections occurring in the elderly, who are at far higher risk of getting seriously ill.

‘This is a reminder of the ongoing risk as the virus spreads throughout the UK. People should continue to follow social distancing rules, wash their hands regularly and wear a face covering in enclosed spaces.’

Experts who have been swabbing tens of thousands of people in England found 13 people per 10,000 were infected between August 22 and September 7, compared to four per 10,000 between July 24 and August 11.

Weekly cases in men aged 60 to 69 rose from 221 to 352 in the past week, an increase of 60 per cent, while among women in the same age group there was a 72 per cent jump from 219 to 376.

Officials had said that while the rise in cases was apparent in younger age groups, it was likely to move on to older people, which would be followed by an increase in hospitalisations. 

In a letter sent out Friday, care home bosses were urged to ‘take the necessary action to prevent and limit outbreaks’, pointing out that in the last three days there had been an increase in notifications of coronavirus cases in care homes.

At the moment it is the workforce that is most affected, but the letter says that ‘clearly’ there is a risk that the virus will spread to residents and in some cases already has.

The letter, which was written by Stuart Miller, director of adult social care delivery at the Department of Health and Social Care, said: ‘You will know already that we are experiencing a rise in confirmed Covid-19 cases, across the UK population.

‘I need to alert you to the first signs this rise is being reflected in care homes too.

‘Over the past three days, Public Health England (PHE) has reported an increase in notifications of Covid-19 cases in care homes.

‘Testing data has also shown an increase in the number of positive results.

‘Currently, the infections are mainly affecting the workforce but clearly there is a risk the virus will spread to care home residents, or to other parts of the care sector.

‘Unfortunately, in some care homes with recent outbreaks, this does appear to have occurred, with residents also becoming infected.’

A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said: ‘Throughout our coronavirus response we have been doing everything we can to ensure all staff and residents in care homes are protected.

‘We are testing all residents and staff, have provided 200 million items of PPE and ring-fenced £600 million to prevent infections in care homes, with a further £3.7 billion available to councils to address pressures caused by the pandemic, including in adult social care.

‘There is a high demand for tests and our laboratories continue to turn test results around as quickly as possible and we plan to rapidly expand it in the coming weeks as well as bringing in new technology to process tests faster.’