If a federal election were to take place today, the Liberals would likely form a majority government. In any case, this is what a recent poll in which Justin Trudeau’s party leads the Conservatives by six points across the country suggests.
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In the latest probe from the firm Abacus Data, the Prime Minister’s political party is at 36%, while Erin O’Toole’s party follows with 30% support.
For the Conservatives, this is a step backwards from the last election, in 2019, when the party won over 34% of the vote, 1% more than the Liberals, who then lost their majority in Parliament.
If the voting intentions are true, they can now hope to win it back.
It is because Justin Trudeau’s party has taken the lead in the regions of the country that it lacked in 2019. In British Columbia, where the Conservatives had obtained 8% more than them last year, the Liberals currently lead by six points. In Ontario, they have widened their lead over the past year, with the official opposition now 12 points ahead.
Liberals in the lead in Quebec
In Quebec, the Liberals are relatively stable with 35% support, they who convinced 34% of voters in La Belle Province in October of last year. However, here again, the gap seems to be widening with their closest opponent, the Bloc Québécois.
The party of Yves-François Blanchet, which had 33% in Quebec in the last election, recorded a slight decline, according to this survey by Abacus Data in which 29% of Quebec respondents say they support the Bloc.
With 18% of the voting intentions in Quebec, Erin O’Toole would do little better than former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, which now has just one member in Quebec, slips below 10%, while it is a good third in Canada with 16%.
The left-wing party, which holds the balance of power in the Commons, has twice avoided holding an election this fall, while the Conservatives and Bloc members were ready to bring down the minority government of Justin Trudeau, especially in the wake of the WE Charity affair.
Satisfaction rate on the rise
This scandal is making less noise in Ottawa today and the Prime Minister could be tempted to call an election himself this spring or even this winter, galvanized by the good polls.
It must be said that the pandemic seems to have restored its image among the electorate. Also according to the Abacus Data opinion poll, 48% of Canadians are satisfied with his government compared to 35% who disapprove of his action: figures that are literally the reverse of October 2019.
This poll was conducted among a panel of 2,912 voters between November 16 and 24.