In 2016, while surveys indicated that Hillary clinton led the electoral contest, the president Donald trump –Then a contender– accused that those surveys were rigged. It is not that they were, but that most of the analyzes take into account general trends, when the electoral system should focus on locals to approach the Electoral College.
In the current race, learning from the past and recognizing key states, the former vice president’s campaigns Joe biden and President Trump recognize that the last two weeks are crucial, in a scenario where anyone could win. Neither can claim a resounding victory in advance.
The Democrat’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, wrote a broad message on Twitter, highlighting the nearly $ 400 million fundraiser, but the need for more funds to mobilize the army of field vote promoters.
“The next few weeks are going to be difficult. I tell our team every week that “we can face tough things.” I want to tell you where your money is going, what we are seeing on the ground and what ‘difficult things’ must be done to win this election in the next two weeks., wrote.
That public message matches an internal memorandum – of which they obtained a copy The Washington Post and Fox News – on the need to redouble efforts, due to a possibility that President Trump will be victorious.
“(The) reality is that this competition is much closer than some of the experts we are seeing on Twitter and on television would suggest,” Dillon wrote.
According to a general average of polls, made up of Five Thirty Eight, biden leads the preferences with 53.6 percent against 42.5 percent in favor of Trump, but the Democrat’s campaign manager acknowledges that the variables could be wrong.
“Even the best polls can be wrong and variables such as turnout mean that in various critical states we are fundamentally tied.”Dillon warned campaign members. “We need to campaign as if we were behind.”
Now: Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer. (4/?)
– Jen O’Malley Dillon (@jomalleydillon) October 15, 2020
There is a saying that goes: “From joke to joke, the truth appears.” In the case of President Trump, it applies to his fear of losing the election.
At a rally in Macon, Georgia, the president launched the question a bit sarcastically, but with a clear background that not everything is going as well as in 2016.
“The worst Democratic candidate in history pressures me … Can you imagine if I lose? … All my life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say: “I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.” I’m not going to feel so good. You may have to leave the country. I do not know”, he expressed.
His followers laughed, but reports on the campaign indicate that there is a real fear of losing the contest, especially since the president has not managed to dispel his poorly qualified performance against the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump says he may leave the US if Biden wins. pic.twitter.com/XmbtYpNDoh
– David Mack (@davidmackau) October 17, 2020
Republican advisers acknowledge that the president is sending the wrong messages at the most critical moment of the campaign, in addition to his poor performance in the NBC News forum where voters questioned him, but the Republican did not manage to get out well free of the details that the moderator Savannah guthrie made about his claims about paying taxes, immigration and COVID-19.
“The president seems to have doubled down on his electoral base … (Although) Republicans must find a way to attract independent voters in states like North Carolina, Maine and Michigan,” he acknowledged. Ken Spain to The New York Times.
The Republican’s campaign manager, Bill stepien, faces difficulties in reorienting President Trump’s strategy, after Brad Parscale’s departure after a botched event in Ohio.
The campaign also faces donation problems and funds are focused on Florida, Arizona, Georgia Y North Carolina Y Pennsylvania, the same entities where Biden has not stopped paying attention.
The Latin key
Five Thirty Eight’s count of possible electoral votes considering trends by states shows that Biden would win by a wide margin, as he would obtain 347 against Trump’s 191. It’s an encouraging number for Democrats, but reality seems to show a closer contest.
The Latino vote is important in key entities, even in those where there are few Hispanics, since for example, in the region of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Y Michigan, Clinton lost by about 78,000 votes.
Jens Manuel Krogstad, an expert and editor of the Pew Research Center on trends in the Latino community, highlights the increase in Latino voters who – if they come out to exercise their right – will be important for presidential hopefuls.
“The Latino population has been growing across the country … in the Dakota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Krogstad said in an interview for the podcast. The Unlimited Diary of this newspaper with City Limits. “For the key states for the election, they are Pennsylvania with 500,000 Latinos to vote, in Michigan more than 250,000 and Wisconsin there are more than 180,000”.
He specified that any vote will be important for the candidates and even if there are few voters, they could make a difference.
“Yes they can be important in elections, those three states were decided by less than 78,000 votes,” he said.