Analysts: For Vodafone Idea, choice is equity infusion or bankruptcy

Vodafone Idea’s promoters – UK-based Vodafone Group and the Aditya Birla Group of India – may need to infuse fresh capital urgently, else the loss-making telecom company may have no option but to file for bankruptcy, analysts said.

A senior government official expects the company to pay up its dues. However, analysts remain skeptical about the telco’s prospects. “Vodafone Idea’s survival is unlikely unless there is fresh equity infusion from its promoters, as the Supreme Court’s strongly worded reaction to the amended plea filed by incumbent telcos means chances of any relief (from the government) in the form of a deferred payment of AGR dues is remote now, ”ratings firm Fitch’s director (corporates), Nitin Soni, told leading newspaper.

The Vodafone Group and Aditya Birla Group did not respond to any queries till press time on Friday.

Vodafone Idea faces AGR dues of more than Rs 53,000 crore. On Thursday, the company reported a Rs 6,439-crore loss for the December quarter. This was the sixth successive quarter when it ended in the red. On Friday, its shares plunged more than 23% to close at Rs 3.44 on the BSE.

“Since Vodafone Idea doesn’t have the money, it may very well move the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT — the bankruptcy court) since telcos need to clear AGR dues before the next court hearing on March 17,” said Rajiv Sharma, research head, SBICap Securities.

A senior Supreme Court lawyer said Vodafone Idea could approach NCLT and if it admitted the case, then the moratorium on payments under the bankruptcy law would kick in and the telco might not have to pay up.

But, he said, the telco would still have go to the Supreme Court and explain its status, as in “why it hasn’t paid the amount.” The lawyer added that the “NCLT may or may not admit the case by March 16.” Even if admitted, it would depend on the top court taking cognisance of Vodafone Idea’s financial status and taking a call if it wants to go ahead with contempt, the lawyer said.

The court on Friday directed telcos to clear AGR dues, or at least pay a sizeable amount to prove their bona fides and warrant more time to pay the rest, as directed by its October 2019 ruling.

If Vodafone Idea indeed exits India’s telecom sector, Fitch’s Soni said the “government may struggle to recover the Rs 88,530-crore deferred spectrum liability in addition to AGR dues, since the company’s chairman Kumar Birla has said the telco may shut shop without relief from the judiciary or the government”.

Vodafone Idea has reiterated its viability would be under threat in absence of any relief on the adjusted gross revenue dues.